Global Methane Status Report 2025

Context: The 2025 Global Methane Status Report, released by UNEP, serves as a mid-term evaluation of the Global Methane Pledge, revealing that while projected emissions growth has slowed, current commitments will fail to meet the 2030 target.

About Global Methane Status Report 2025:

Key Summary of the Report:

1. Revised Baseline: The Current Legislation Emissions (CLE) scenario projects 2030 emissions at 369 Mt, which is 14 Mt (4%) lower than the 2021 pre-Pledge baseline, due to slower gas market growth and new waste regulations in Europe and North America.
2. Ambition Gap: Full implementation of current NDCs and Methane Action Plans (MAPs) would reduce emissions by only 8% below 2020 levels by 2030, far short of the GMP’s 30% target.
3. Technically Feasible Pathway: Implementing all Maximum Technically Feasible Reductions (MTFR) could cut emissions by 32% by 2030 (131 Mt), avoiding 0.2°C of warming by 2050 and over 180,000 premature deaths annually by 2030.
4. Cost-Effectiveness: Over 80% (109 Mt/yr) of the MTFR potential is available at a low cost ($</t CH₄), with the waste sector offering net savings of $9 billion annually through vaporized biogas.
5. Sectoral Potential: The energy sector holds 72% of the 2030 technical mitigation potential, followed by agriculture (18%) and waste (10%).
6. Geographical Focus: The G20+ group (which includes the EU-24, Norway, Switzerland, Iceland, and New Zealand) is responsible for 65% of emissions and 72% of the global mitigation potential.
7. Policy Progress: 127 countries (65% of Paris Agreement parties) now include methane measures in NDCs, a 38% increase from pre-2020, but only six countries (Canada, Japan, Moldova, Norway, USA, Vietnam) have national targets directly comparable to the GMP.

Major Sources of Methane Emission:

• Agriculture (42%, 146 Mt): Dominated by enteric fermentation from livestock (76% of agricultural emissions) and rice cultivation (21%).
• Energy (38%, 135 Mt): Comprises oil and gas production (64 Mt from upstream, 17 Mt from downstream) and coal mining (43 Mt).
• Waste (20%, 71 Mt): Primarily from municipal solid waste in landfills (37 Mt) and wastewater (30 Mt from domestic and industrial).

Implications Across the Globe:

1. Health & Productivity: The CLE scenario would cause 24,000 additional premature deaths, 2.5 Mt of crop losses (maize, rice, soy, wheat), and 6.9 million lost labour hours annually by 2030 due to ground-level ozone.
2. Regional Disparities: Emissions in non-G20+ regions (Africa, Latin America, parts of Asia) are projected to rise 16% by 2030 and 53% by 2050, driven by population growth, expanding livestock, and improved waste collection without concurrent mitigation.
3. Data Integrity Crisis: Persistent underreporting, especially in the fossil fuel sector, compromises policy effectiveness. Studies in Mexico and Australia show measured emissions can be double the official inventory estimates.
4. Locked-in Emissions: Methane from waste decomposes over decades. Without pre-2030 investment in landfill gas capture and organic waste diversion, significant mitigation potential for 2040-2050 will be lost.
5. Financial Mismatch: Tracked methane finance averages $13.7  billion/year, but the net annual cost to implement MTFR by 2030 is $127 billion—a massive investment gap.