The UNEP Emissions Gap Report 2025

The UNEP Emissions Gap Report 2025 titled “Off Target” warns that despite new climate pledges, the world remains on course for 2.3–2.5°C warming, far exceeding the Paris Agreement goals.

About The UNEP Emissions Gap Report 2025:

• What it is?
  • The 16th edition of UNEP’s annual assessment that measures the “gap” between projected emissions and the levels needed to limit global warming.
• Published by: United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP).
• Aim: To evaluate countries’ Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), analyse the global temperature trajectory, and recommend actions for aligning with the 1.5°C and 2°C Paris targets.

Key Global Trends in the 2025 Report:

• Temperature projections: The world remains on track for 2.3–2.5°C warming with NDCs, and 2.8°C under current policies, far exceeding the Paris limits despite incremental progress in pledges.
• Limited progress: Adjustments in calculation methods and the U.S. withdrawal from the Paris Agreement offset minor gains, proving that global ambition has stagnated rather than strengthened.
• Emissions gap: To align with the Paris goals, global emissions must fall by 35% (2°C) or 55% (1.5°C) from 2019 levels by 2035, a scale of reduction never achieved in human history.
• Overshoot risk: The 1.5°C ceiling will likely be breached by 2035, necessitating rapid negative emissions and technological interventions to stabilize the planet’s temperature later this century.
• Sectoral emissions: The energy, industry, transport, and agriculture sectors continue to dominate emissions, as fossil fuel dependency outpaces renewable transition gains.
• Technology readiness: Solar, wind, and battery technologies are cheaper and scalable, but the financial divide limits their deployment in low-income and developing nations.
• Geopolitical challenge: Rising debt, weak climate finance, and fragmented cooperation among major economies are slowing the collective pace of global decarbonization.

Successes Highlighted:

• Falling temperature projections: Global temperature projections have dropped from 3–3.5°C (2015) to ~2.4°C (2025), proving gradual but meaningful progress in climate pledges.
• Technology availability: The world now witnesses unprecedented expansion in renewables, electric vehicles, and battery storage, signaling industrial readiness for decarbonization.
• Increased NDC coverage: Nearly 90% of global emissions are now included in national climate pledges, reflecting broader international participation and accountability.

Limitations:

• Insufficient ambition: The latest NDC updates reduce projected warming by just 0.1°C, keeping global temperatures at 2.3–2.5°C, far from the Paris target of 1.5°C — confirming that political ambition remains weak.
• Finance gap: Global climate finance flows need to triple by 2030 to meet mitigation goals, yet only one-third of the required funding is currently mobilized, especially constraining developing nations.
• Dependence on unproven carbon removals: The report warns against overreliance on Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) and Direct Air Capture (DAC) technologies, which remain expensive and untested at scale.
• Geopolitical instability: Conflicts and energy crises post-2022 have caused reinvestment in fossil fuels, with global subsidies surpassing $1.3 trillion in 2023, reversing decarbonization progress.

UNEP Recommendations:

• Accelerate near-term emission cuts: To stay on track, annual global emissions must fall by 35% for 2°C and 55% for 1.5°C by 2035, requiring immediate phasing out of coal and oil.
• Mobilize climate finance: UNEP calls for restructuring international financial systems, including debt swaps and concessional financing, to unlock private investment in green sectors.
• Enhance international cooperation: The report emphasizes operationalizing the Loss and Damage Fund and enhancing technology sharing frameworks under the Paris Agreement.
• Mainstream adaptation and resilience: UNEP urges integrating climate adaptation into national budgets and sectoral planning to protect vulnerable communities and ecosystems.
• Phase out fossil fuel subsidies: The global economy must redirect fossil subsidies toward renewables, as current subsidies are five times higher than clean energy support.
• Empower developing economies: Strengthen access to clean energy innovation funds and capacity-building initiatives to ensure equitable transition pathways.
• Strengthen monitoring frameworks: Develop a unified global tracking mechanism for emissions and finance to ensure transparency and accountability in climate action progress.